Track record
every pick we publish ends up here. open, closed, winner, loser, nothing hidden..picks total
.closed
.winners
.losers
.win rate
.avg return
How we publish. Each pick enters the log at the day's close. Targets and stops are set from 14-day ATR. Picks close when price hits target or stop, or 30 days elapses, whichever first. The composite backtest under how it works has known survivorship bias. This live ledger does not.
Sleeve breakdown
drift / pead / 52w breakout paper portfolios, $10k each. realized vs backtest expectation.| Sleeve | Open | Closed | Wins | Losses | Win rate | Avg realized | SPY (same window) | Backtest expected | Drift vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| loading. | |||||||||
When this becomes meaningful. Hold horizons are 60-90 days; first sleeves opened 2026-05-08. Expect closures starting early July 2026. Until then "closed" stays zero. Once ~30+ trades close, the realized-vs-expected gap tells us if our backtest matches reality (or if regime has shifted / execution adds drag).